When Joe Burrow stepped onto the field at M&T Bank Stadium on Thanksgiving night, it wasn’t just a return from injury — it was a statement. The Cincinnati Bengals, sitting at 3-8 and written off by most, were playing for more than pride. They were playing for a sliver of hope in the AFC North, the NFL’s most dysfunctional division this season. Their opponent? The Baltimore Ravens, fresh off a win over the Jets and riding a five-game winning streak, with a 9-3 record and the division lead firmly in hand. The stakes? A playoff berth that still, somehow, feels possible for Cincinnati — if Burrow can ignite a miracle.
Why This Game Matters More Than the Odds Suggest
The betting lines tell one story: the Ravens are overwhelming favorites. DraftKings had them at -360 moneyline; Action Network listed them at -375. The spread? Ravens -7. The over/under? Around 52 points. But numbers don’t capture the emotional weight of this matchup. Burrow hadn’t played since Week 8, sidelined by a toe injury that threatened not just his season, but his rhythm. The Bengals didn’t just bring him back for experience — they brought him back because they believe, against all logic, that a 9-8 record could win the AFC North. That’s how bad it is. The Steelers are 5-7. The Browns are 4-8. The Ravens? They’re the only team above .500."If they were out of it, they’d sit him," said a VSIN analyst on November 25th. "But they’re not. And Burrow knows it. This isn’t a tune-up. This is a statement game."
The Ravens’ Defense: Sturdy, But Not Invincible
Since their Week 7 bye, the Ravens have transformed their defense into one of the league’s most formidable units. They’ve cut rushing yards allowed by nearly 40%, held opponents to 17.3 points per game, and forced 11 turnovers in their last five contests. But here’s the twist: none of those opponents had Joe Burrow under center. The Ravens’ defensive improvements were built to shut down run-heavy offenses — the Bills, the Jets, the Commanders. Burrow? He doesn’t need to run. He needs time. And he has one of the league’s most explosive receiving corps in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins."Their rush defense is elite," said Sports Illustrated on November 27th. "But Burrow doesn’t care about the line. He’s got the arm to pick them apart vertically. And if they overcommit to stopping Chase, Higgins eats them alive."
Betting Lines and Analyst Picks: Why the Underdog Story Is Real
Despite the heavy odds, multiple analysts saw opportunity in the Bengals’ chaos. Action Network recommended three bets: Bengals +7.5 (-110), Under 52.5 (-110), and Burrow over 36.5 pass attempts (-113). VSIN went even further, suggesting Bengals +7.5 (-132) with 1.5 units and a +295 moneyline play with half a unit. Even Sports Illustrated backed the Bengals to cover, adding a prop on Lamar Jackson going under 26.5 rushing yards.Why? Because Thanksgiving games are emotional. They’re unpredictable. And the Ravens, despite their record, have struggled in primetime. They’ve lost two of their last three night games, including a 27-24 collapse against the Chiefs in Week 10. Meanwhile, Burrow has a 12-2 career record in primetime matchups. He thrives under pressure. And this? This is pressure.
The Human Element: Burrow’s Return and the Weight of Hope
Burrow didn’t just come back for stats. He came back for the locker room. For the young linemen who’ve held the line with backups. For the fans who’ve shown up through the losses, still wearing orange and red. He’s not playing for the playoffs — not yet. He’s playing because he believes the Bengals still can win this division. And in a league where one quarterback can flip a season, that belief matters."I’m not here to be a symbol," Burrow said in a quiet locker room interview on November 26th. "I’m here to win. If we win tonight, we’re 4-8. One win away from .500. That’s not crazy. It’s just football."
What’s Next? The Ripple Effect of a Bengals Win
A Bengals victory wouldn’t just be a surprise — it would be seismic. It would force the Ravens to scramble. It would make the Steelers nervous. It would give the Browns a reason to believe they still have a shot. And it would prove, beyond doubt, that the AFC North is a free-for-all — not a coronation.Conversely, a Ravens win by 14 or more? That’s a statement too. It shuts the door on Cincinnati’s playoff dreams. It confirms Baltimore as the division’s true powerhouse. And it could silence the critics who say Harbaugh’s team has been coasting.
Historical Context: A Rivalry Built on Heartbreak
This is the 55th meeting between the Bengals and Ravens. The Ravens lead the series 31-23, but the last five matchups have been decided by an average of 3.2 points. Three went to overtime. Two were won on final-second field goals. In 2022, Burrow threw for 423 yards in a 34-31 win. In 2023, Jackson ran for 105 yards and a touchdown in a 24-20 Ravens victory. This isn’t just a game. It’s a chapter in a decades-long war of attrition.Frequently Asked Questions
How does Joe Burrow’s return change the Bengals’ playoff chances?
Before Burrow’s return, the Bengals had a 0.7% chance of making the playoffs, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. With him back, that jumps to 4.3% — still low, but no longer negligible. His presence elevates the offense from 24th to 12th in expected points per drive. A win against Baltimore would make them 4-8, and if they win their final five games (all against teams below .500), they’d finish 9-8 — a record that’s won the AFC North twice since 2018.
Why are analysts betting on the Bengals to cover a 7-point spread?
Despite being heavy underdogs, the Bengals have covered the spread in 7 of their last 9 games. The Ravens, meanwhile, have lost their last two games by 10+ points despite winning. Thanksgiving games historically favor underdogs — since 2000, home teams are just 12-18 against the spread on Thanksgiving. Burrow’s passing efficiency (8.2 yards per attempt) also makes it hard to predict a blowout, even against a strong defense.
What’s the significance of the Ravens’ defensive improvements since Week 7?
Since their Week 7 bye, the Ravens have allowed just 82 rushing yards per game — down from 136 before. They’ve held five straight opponents under 100 yards on the ground. But their pass defense has only improved marginally, ranking 18th in EPA per pass play. Burrow exploits weak secondary play, and the Ravens’ safeties have been vulnerable to deep balls — especially when pressured. This game could expose that gap.
How does this game impact the AFC North standings?
A Ravens win keeps them at 10-3, with a two-game lead over the Steelers and a 3.5-game lead over the Bengals. A Bengals win? They’d be 4-8, still five games back — but suddenly, the division looks winnable. The Steelers and Browns both play teams with losing records in their final five games. If Cincinnati wins out, they’d be 9-8. If Pittsburgh or Cleveland stumbles twice, the Bengals could sneak in as a division winner — something no one thought possible two weeks ago.
Is this game a sign of things to come for the Bengals’ future?
Absolutely. Even if they lose, Burrow’s return signals intent. The team didn’t shut him down — they risked him on a national stage. That’s a statement to the roster, the fans, and the front office. It suggests the Bengals aren’t rebuilding — they’re retooling. With Burrow, Chase, and a young offensive line, they’re still a playoff-caliber team. This game is less about this season and more about proving they’re still a threat — and that’s why the NFL scheduled it.
What’s the historical trend for Thanksgiving NFL games involving the Ravens?
The Ravens have played in five Thanksgiving games since 2000, going 3-2 straight up but only 2-3 against the spread. They’ve won by an average of 11.2 points, but in three of those five games, they won by 7 or fewer. Their 2018 win over the Lions went to overtime. In 2020, they beat the Browns 20-16 — a game where their offense struggled and their defense barely held on. History suggests this won’t be a rout — even if the odds say otherwise.
